AI evidence

Why Mon Jun 22 is predicted at 528 students

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Forecast summary

Influential inputs, not causes. Ordered by historical correlation magnitude.

Expected

528

students

80% interval

497-557

students

Data quality

High

3 of 3 sources

Influential inputs

Grade 10 field trip
112 students off-campus, 09:30–14:00
-92
Early dismissal
All grades released 12:45
-64
Midterm examinations
Grades 11–12 alternate schedule
-38
Heavy rain forecast
NWS 78% probability >1in rainfall
-22
Popular menu: chicken & rice
Historical participation +6.1% vs baseline
+14
Recent attendance trend
Trailing 14-day average rising
+6

Similar historical days

2025-10-23	541	Midterms + Gr. 9 trip
2025-12-04	519	Early dismissal + storm
2026-01-29	552	Exams + assembly

Provenance

District attendance system, updated 06:00 daily
School calendar feed, synced 04:00 daily
NWS weather API, forecast retrieved 05:30
Menu participation history, last 180 service days

Limitations

The model cannot anticipate unannounced events, such as last-minute cancellations. It does not certify food safety. Estimates carry an 80% interval, and actual attendance can fall outside it. Human review is required before consequential action.

Model: ssp-forecast-1.0